Posts Tagged ‘NIC’

On the page “What Is Retirement” (see link above on the banner of this blog) I propose a new definition for retirement as “The period of one’s life when one shifts from working primarily for the means of earning income to working primarily for the satisfaction of producing a purpose or result while devoting additional time to recreation, education and leisure activities.” to replace the current Oxford English Dictionary definition of ”The period of one’s life after leaving one’s job and ceasing to work.”

Today’s New York Times has an article entitled “Working Longer May Benefit Your Health https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/03/business/retirement/working-longer-may-benefit-your-health.html?smprod=nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share&_r=0

While ultimately concluding that the scientific evidence is inconclusive about whether working longer benefits your health, The New York Times article says the answer tends toward yes and asserts this is true not just for more highly educated, healthier adults in more fulfilling jobs but for many types of jobs that keep the mind active and provide networks for social interactions.

The headline of The New York Times article seems to imply a choice between working full-time and full-time retirement but most of those cited in the article as working past retirement age have shifted from full-time to some type of part-time employment or consulting.    My experience, and that of many well-educated friends, shows them most satisfied in a partial retirement lifestyle where part-time work, consulting or a challenging volunteer position offers the mental stimulation and social networking opportunities that The New York Times article asserts benefit seniors’ health.    I believe seniors, their employers and society in general all benefit from meaningful part-time, consulting and volunteer experiences and that we will see more and more baby-boomer seniors in these partially-retired positions going forward.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Most seniors and their families see the monthly cost of a senior housing facility as much higher than the monthly cost of living at home with family care, or even with part-time or full-time home healthcare.   But the math that most seniors and families use to make this comparison assumes no implied cost for occupying a home without a mortgage, much less paid care than is provided in a seniors housing facility and places no value on the companionship and social interaction that a seniors housing community can provide.

This analysis, using data from a variety of sources, attempts to make a fair apples-to-apples comparison, before and after taxes, of the cost for a senior living at-home without care, living at-home with a modest amount of paid care and living in an independent living, assisted living or memory care facility.

The chart below shows the comparison on a pre-tax basis of living at home with a modest level of care to the cost of various types of seniors housing communities.   Bottom Line – The cost of living in a $150,000 home with even a modest level of home healthcare can easily exceed the cost of an independent living community and approaches the cost of assisted living.  In addition, a senior living at home with part-time care does not get the companionship and social interaction that a seniors housing community can provide and which many studies show are beneficial for a senior’s mental acuity and well being.

Please read below for details and I welcome your comments and questions.

 

THE COST OF A SENIOR HOUSING COMMUNITY

The cost of various seniors housing settings is easy for seniors and their families to see because most facilities charge a monthly fee for housing and care.   The average monthly cost for this care according to a recent survey by the National Investment Center for the Senior Housing and Care Industry (NIC) is as follows:

  • Independent Living – $3,076 per month
  • Assisted Living – $4,722 per month
  • Memory Care – $6,082 per month

To these costs, we need to add some additional expenses for a senior living in a seniors housing community for social and entertainment activities, transportation and non-housing living expenses.   I have estimated these at half the estimated cost of someone living at home based on data from the “A Place for Mom.com” website, at a total of $475 per month.  I assume half the cost of a senior living at home for someone living in seniors housing because many of these services are provided in a typical seniors housing facility and are included in the monthly rate. I add another $183 per month for a senior living in a seniors housing community for utilities, cable television, wifi and phone and renters insurance. Adding a combined $658 per month for things like phone, cable TV, some outside meals, transportation and other living expenses to the monthly fee for seniors housing communities brings the total monthly cost for living in senior housing rounded to the nearest $100 to:

  • Independent Living – $3,700 per month
  • Assisted Living – $5,400 per month
  • Memory Care – $6,700 per month

 

AT HOME LIVING AND HOME OPERATING COSTS

When the total monthly cost for senior housing and care at the above settings are compared to the out-of-pocket costs for a senior living in a $150,000 home without a mortgage they certainly appear formidable.     A Place for Mom estimates the monthly out-of-pocket cost for a average senior living at home (in a home we assume is worth about $150,000) without a mortgage to be approximately $2,400, broken down as follows.

Maintenance costs $272
Utilities including phone and cable $265
Property Taxes $149
Property Insurance $78
Three meals per day $494
Housekeeping services $118
Emergency alarm system $50
Transportation $715
Social and entertainment $235

It is this $2,400 figure (or something lower because the senior in question has curtailed her social, entertainment and transportation expenses) that most seniors and their families compare to the $3,700 to $6,700 monthly cost of facility-based senior housing and care.   Therefore, seniors and their families generally see facility-based care as 50% to 275% more expensive than having a senior live at home.

But the above comparison ignores the value of the house in which a senior is living and ignores the cost of caregiving and the socialization benefits that a senior would receive if she were living in a seniors housing facility.   Let’s deal with each of these separately.

 

ESTIMATED HOUSING COSTS FOR $150,000 HOME

To account for the value of the home itself, I estimate implied rent (essentially an estimate of the amount you could earn from renting the house) using a 7% cap rate on the assumed $150,000 value of the home, at $875 per month ($150,000 x .07 / 12), which seems very modest for many U.S. housing markets.

When you combine the above monthly costs for home maintenance, taxes and operation and living expenses of $2,400 per month with the implied rent, we get an estimated monthly housing and living cost for a senior living in a $150,000 home of $3,275 (approximately $2,400 for living and home operational expenses, plus $875 in implied rent).

From the above analysis you can see that the cost of living expenses, home maintenance and operation and implied rent/housing costs for a senior living on one’s own $150,000 home, calculated in what I believe is a conservative fashion, is nearly 90% of the average cost of a senior living in an independent living facility.   And in the independent living facility the senior is getting much more interaction with other people, much more socialization and mental stimulation than most seniors get when living at home alone.

 

ESTIMATED HOUSING COSTS FOR $500,000 CONDOMINIUM

Doing the same math for a senior living in a $500,000 condominium yields estimated monthly living and home operating expenses of $4,449 broken down as follows:

Condo Fees $2,000
Maintenance costs
Utilities including phone and cable $165
Property Taxes $542
Property Insurance $130
Three meals per day $494
Housekeeping services $118
Emergency alarm system $50
Transportation $715
Social and entertainment $235

The implied rent calculation for a $500,000 condo is $2,917 per month ($500,000 x 7% / 12). Combining monthly living and home operating expenses with the implied rent for a $500,000 condo indicates a total monthly cost of living at home, including implied rent, without care at approximately $7,400.

When the above figure is compared to the cost of seniors housing, you can see that the estimated monthly cost of a senior living in a $500,000 condo is almost twice the cost of independent living and 36% higher than the cost of assisted living. You can argue that comparing the cost of a $500,000 condo with the average cost of seniors housing is an unfair comparison because these facilities would cost more in an expensive real estate market. But I believe the calculation on a $500,000 condo is fair for the Baltimore market, where I Iive, and I believe it is fair to say that when a true apples-to-apples comparison of housing, home operation and living costs for senior is made to the cost of living in a seniors housing facility, the difference is smaller than most seniors and families realize before even taking into account the cost of care.

 

HOME CARE COSTS

From the above analysis, we see that the cost of a senior remaining at home is less than the cost of any type of seniors housing community, even independent living, for a senior in a modest $150,000 home.   However, as soon as any degree of paid home healthcare is provided the cost advantages of living at home disappear.

According to A Place For Mom and other surveys conducted by insurance companies offering long term care insurance, the cost of in-home care ranges from $14 – $24 per hour.   Certainly at the lower end of this range we are talking about a companion or an aid, not a trained nursing. If you assume only four hours of care per day and only five days per week with family providing care on weekend, the monthly cost of this much home healthcare would range from $1,120 ($14 x 4 hours x 5 days x 4 weeks) to $1,920 per month ($24 x 4 hours x 5 days x 4 weeks).   If we use the average of these two figures, the monthly cost for four hours of home healthcare five days a week is $1,520.

When you add the cost of four hours of home care during the week to the cost of housing noted above, the monthly cost of housing plus a modest level of home health would be approximately:

$150,000 Home $4,800
$500,000 Condo $8,900

No cost is assumed for family care on weekends.

As the chart at the beginning of this post indicates, as soon as a modest level of home care, in this case four hours per day five days a week, is added to the cost of a home, home operation and living expenses, the cost of living at home with home care, even for a modestly priced home, easily exceeds the cost of independent living and is nearly 90% of the cost of an assisted living facility.

 

TAX CONSIDERATIONS

In general terms, healthcare costs exceeding 7.5% of income of a senior’s income are deductible. This includes long term care costs if the senior is chronically ill and is is being cared for pursuant to a plan of care prescribed by a licensed health care practitioner.

If a family member younger than age 65 is paying for care, healthcare costs exceeding 10% of the income of the family member paying for care are deductible.   This can apply to home care prescribed by a licensed health care practitioner but not a senior’s housing costs while living at home.

In a seniors housing facility the cost of healthcare provided in assisted living or a memory care facility that exceeds 7.5% of income may be deductible if required by a senior’s medical condition and it is possible that the full cost of facility-based care including housing component may be deductible if living in such a facility is considered essential for medical reasons.   See IRS Publication 502 https://www.irs.gov/publications/p502/ar02.html for more information and consult with an accounting professional for more complete information.

 

AVAILABILITY OF GOVERNMENT ASSISTANCE

While many people believe it does, Medicare does not pay for long-term custodial care at home or in a seniors housing facility.   It may pay for short-term home health, therapy or nursing care at-home or in a facility if is prescribed by a physician in response to a particular medical need.

Medicaid will pay for long-term custodial care in skilled nursing facility but only after all other resources are exhausted.   Some states have waiver programs that allow Medicaid to be used for assisted living and memory care or at-home community-based care, but as is the case with nursing home care, Medicaid will pay only after all other resources are exhausted. In addition, the last proposed Republican repeal and replace of the Affordable Care Act included significant cuts to Medicaid that could potentially reduce the availability of Medicaid funds for long term care for seniors.

Veteran’s benefits include increased Veteran’s Aids and Attendance Pensions payment for care in a seniors housing or long term care facility under certain circumstances and seniors who qualify for Veteran’s benefits should investigate this option.

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Posted in Alzheimer's, Dementia, Finance, Paying For Care, Senior Housing & Care | 6 Comments »

The Cost of Care

Raw Cost of Care

The chart below shows the average monthly cost of care for skilled nursing (nursing home), memory care (dementia), assisted living and independent living facilities in the Baltimore/Washington region for 2015.    It also shows the cost for 24 hour / 7 day a week home health aide care and 24/7 home health aide care supplemented by 7 hours each week of registered nursing (RN) and licensed practical nursing (LPN) care in an attempt to replicate the level of care an individual might receive in an assisted living or skilled nursing facility.  cost-of-care

The monthly cost in 2015 of facility-based care in the Baltimore/Washington region ranges from $2,912 in an independent living facility to $5,659 in a one bedroom unit in an assisted living facility to $6,234 in a memory care facility, and $9,990 to $11,270 for care in a skilled nursing facility (nursing home) in either a semi-private or private room.   For a resident needing assistance with three or more activities of daily living (bathing, transferring, etc.), or with any significant degree of dementia, an independently living facility would probably not provide adequate care without supplemental home healthcare, so the effective range for the monthly cost of care for a senior needing a moderate to significant level of assistance in a specialized seniors housing and care facility in the Baltimore/Washington region in 2015 was $5,659 to $11,270.

To see description of the various types of senior housing and care facilities see my page Senior Housing Options http://wp.me/P64zBK-w.

Home health aides cost $21.73 per hour in 2015, and would cost $14,603 monthly if provided on a 24/7 basis assuming no differential for night shifts.   A licensed practical nurse was $53.94 per hour and a registered nursing was $77.88 per hour.   In the above example, I assumed an hour a day of both LPN and RN care in addition to 24/7 home health aide care to estimate the monthly cost of care equivalent to that delivered in a skilled nursing facility to be approximately $18,294 per month.   Many families care for seniors with a combination of care by family members supplemented with limited time by home health aides or other paid caregivers.   While this type of arrangement can result in lower cost than facility-based care, it is clear that the cost to provide 24/7 aid and nursing care at home far exceeds the cost of obtaining such care in an assisted living, memory care or skilled nursing facility.    Even when less than 24/7 paid care is provided the cost of facility-based vs. home care is often closer than families expect once the cost of utilies,  home upkeep and forgone rent or sales proceeds are considered.

The other big advantage to facility-based care over 24/7 home care, even if you can afford it, that I believe many families overlook, is socialization.   Seniors being treated at home, even by the most dedicated family caregivers and aides, spend a lot of time isolated from human interaction.   At well-run senior housing and care facilities, interaction among the residents and between residents a diverse group of staff provide more interpersonal and intellectual interaction and stimulation than can be achieved at home, which can be very important for a seniors’ mental health and emotional well being.

Planning For The Future Cost of Care

If the raw cost of care and learning that the government will not help you pay for it (See prior post “The Government Will Not Pay For You Long Term Care”) are not sobering enough, seniors and families trying to plan for long term care need to understand the probability of needing such care, the likely duration of such care, and its future cost.   I hope to explore these issues more fully in a future post on long term care insurance and other financing options.  But to illustrate the future cost of care for planning purposes here, I have assumed an average length of stay (LOS) for skilled nursing and assisted living  care of 24 month, 36 months in memory care and 39 months in independent living.  I have then assumed 2.5% inflation for 35 years because the average entry age in to an assisted living or skilled nursing facility is about 85 and the time many people start seriously considering long term care insurance is age 50.

future-cost-of-care

In the table above, the average monthly costs for 2015 in the Baltimore/Washington Region are mutiplied by an assumed LOS in months to get the cost for an expected episode of care.    The future value of this expected episode of care is then calculated for 2050 assuming you are thinking about this today at age 50 and planning for costs when you are 85 and are more likely to enter an assisted living or skilled nursing facility.   The LOS assumed above are averages and at two years probably a bit high for long-stay custodial skilled nursing care.  The average LOS are about right for assisted living and independent living based on actual turnover rates in buildings today.    I did not find good data on memory care facility LOS but it is widely recognized to be higher than assisted living because some residents enter at younger ages with early onset Alzheimers and are in better physical condition.   When planning for an individual’s need to finance long term care it may be appropriate to plan for longer or shorter lengths of stays and look at the probabities of  these  but I believe  these averages are useful to illustrate the order of magnitude of possible future long term care costs.

I assume 2.5% inflation to estimate the future cost of long term care.   The 2.5% inflation factor is about where costs have been increasing in recent years but with increasing wage pressure and inflation expectations higher now that Donald Trump is President-elect, other higher inflation assumptions may be appropriate.

The bottom line is that a 50 year old today might reasonably plan for between $300,000 and $600,000 of long term care costs (an average of $516,483 for AL through private room skilled nursing) and expected to spend this amount over a two – three year period beginning around 2050.

Technical Notes

New York Life, which is a long term care insurance provider affiliated with AARP, has an online cost of care calculator that is updated annually.   New York Life’s 2015 Cost of Care Survey was designed and implemented by Long-Term Care Group (LTCG), the nation’s leader in long-term care administration services. Each year LTCG surveys thousands of Skilled Nursing Home, Home Health Care and Assisted Living Facility providers to collect cost of care data. The cost of care averages are calculated from over 30,000 different providers at the national, state and metropolitan statistical area level.   Other cost of care calculators, including one from Genworth Financial, are also available online.

The figures above are for the Washington / Baltimore Region and are somewhat higher than the national average.   I supplemented and verified the LTCG survey data with information from the National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing and Care Industry’s NIC-MAP database, which surveys seniors housing and nursing care properties on a quarterly basis (see http://www.nic.org).   I used NIC-MAP data for the Baltimore region, which shows the cost for skilled nursing facility care and care in an assisted living facility 7% – 8% lower than the LTCG survey but similar enough to confirm the LTCG survey data.    NIC-MAP is also able to provide pricing data for independent living and memory care / dementia facilities, which I incorporated in my analysis.

 

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Ten Takeaways From NIC Conference

The Fall conference of the National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing and Care Industry (NIC – www.nic.org) was held in Washington, DC from September 14 to September 16, 2016.   This is the largest industry conference for seniors housing and care.

I moderated a panel entitled “Somewhere Over The Rainbow: Where Winning Post Acute Strategies Attract Investors. “   Panelists included: Benjamin Breier, President & CEO, Kindred Healthcare, Inc.; Larry Cohen, CEO, Capital Senior Living Corporation; George V. Hager, Jr., CEO, Genesis HealthCare, LLC and Andy Smith, President & CEO, Brookdale Senior Living.

When I served as an equity analyst I would spend almost my entire time at NIC conferences in private meetings with companies and investors.   As a retired analyst, blogger on seniors housing and care and session moderator, I had many informal conversations with operators, industry organization staff, lenders and investors, a few scheduled meetings and attended more of the actual conference sessions.

My ten takeaways from the 2016 Fall NIC Conference are:

  1. Record Attendance – Guarded Optimism – NIC’s Fall Conference at the Marriott Marquis Hotel next to the Washington Convention Center had a record reported attendance of 2,700. Senior housing operators are guardedly optimistic, with asset prices still high, reasonably positive operating metrics and only spotty reports of rising labor costs.   There is some caution about overbuilding but that threat may be receding (see below).   Skilled nursing and post-acute care operators are struggling with top-line revenue pressure and big transition to value-based purchasing.
  2. Capital Plentiful But Diversifying – Capital for seniors housing property acquisitions and renovation remains readily available as does investment capital for experienced senior housing operators to grow their businesses.   HUD financing is still very attractive for skilled nursing but, with the underperformance of some skilled nursing and post-acute care operators, REITs are diversifying to limit their exposure to these subsectors. Ventas led this charge with its CCP spinoff and new investments in hospitals and university-tied biotech. HCP has announced its intension to spin off its skilled nursing holdings into QCP and Welltower has also announced a desire to reduce its exposure to Genesis.
  3. Construction Lending Standards Tightening – NIC’s in-house economist Beth Mace and NIC’s bluebook featuring key industry trends note a tightening of lending standards for new seniors housing construction as reported by surveys of loan officers.   If true, this may help limit widespread overbuilding of assisted living properties, about which I have expressed concern.   Other conversations I had during the Conference seemed to support NIC’s view that underwriting standards for new seniors housing projects are tightening.   Some finance types I spoke believe the cutback in senior housing construction lending is driven by a broader cutback in lending for multi-family construction projects rather than lenders making a specific determination that seniors housing is becoming overbuilt.
  4. Good and Some Less Good Development Continues – Despite the cutback in lending, many seasoned senior housing operator/builders are continuing to develop projects in markets in which is it is difficult to develop and for which the approval process may have been 3-5 years.   There appear to be a smaller number of projects still being developed by inexperienced players with money from community banks and smaller equity investors and hopefully tightening lender standards will further weed out more of these types of projects in the future.
  5. NIC Continues to Built Its Value For Skilled Nursing & Post-Acute Care – Since adding skilled nursing data to its NIC-MAP data service a number of years ago and adding a Spring conference with more skilled nursing focus, NIC continues to build its data and content for skilled nursing and post-acute care providers and is at the forefront of educating senior housing operators about the convergence of seniors housing and post-acute care.   As post-acute care transitions from a fee-for-service to value-based purchasing, NIC appears well positioned to help educate investors and attract investment capital for this portion of the industry, as it has previously done for seniors housing.
  6. Post-Acute & Senior Housing Providers Have Opportunity to be “Strategic Aggregators” – Former HHS Secretary Michael Leavitt opened the NIC Conference by providing an overview of the broad changes occurring in the U.S. healthcare system with a focus on the shift to value-based purchasing.   Mr. Leavitt believes the shift to value-based purchasing increases the risk that senior housing and post-acute care providers become commoditized fee-for-service price-takers.   But Leavitt also believes that senior housing and post acute care companies that serve significant numbers of patients in their facilities and programs have the opportunity to aggregate patient lives and serve as general contractors making value-based purchases themselves rather than just being price-takers in a value-based payment world.   While the shift to value-based payment is slow and fragmented, Mr. Leavitt quoted Bill Gates as saying, “Don’t overestimate what will happen in the next two years or underestimate what will happen in the next 10.”   He foresees continued consolidation through both mergers and acquisitions and additional joint ventures among operators.
  7. Major Post-Acute Operators Generally Agree With Leavitt – The four publicly traded senior housing and post-acute care operators who participated in my panel are clearly frustrated as they function in a fee-for-service world (Only 1-2% of their revenue is now truly value-based) while pivoting their organizations to profit from value-based payments.   These large operators are pursuing a wide range of strategies to provide post-acute care and adapt to value-based payments (from senior housing operators contracting out all post-acute services, to focusing on being the preferred provider for a few segments of post-acute care, to being a comprehensive provider of all services – LTACHs, IRFs, SNFs, home health, rehab therapy and even hospice – in select markets).   Two common themes appear, however.   Major post acute care providers are positioning themselves to be strategic aggregators and value-based purchasers and major senior housing operators believe offering post-acute services within their buildings themselves or through third parties will be key in continuing to attract and retain senior housing residents.   Most operators are also looking to increase their concentration in select markets.
  8. Managed Medicare Rate Pressure Slowing – NIC reports that the downward pressure on Medicare managed care (Medicare MA) rates to skilled nursing operators slowed in 2Q16 and it will be interesting to see if relentless downward pressure on SNF rates and length of stay from Medicare managed care providers is really beginning to subside. This would be very good news for skilled nursing operators.
  9. Importance of Data/Information Systems Growing – Both post-acute care operators and senior housing operators providing, or contracting with others to provide, post-acute care within their facilities are seeing an increased need for data to measure outcomes in order to make the case to ACOs and other bundlers of post-acute patients and in order to take a more active role themselves in managing patient lives.     Data to predict future performance of facilities in a value-based purchasing world is also key to underwriting future investments for sophisticated investors, like Formation Capital, since past performance alone of a skilled nursing or post-acute care facility may be a poor predictor of how it will perform in a broader value-based purchasing environment.
  10. NIC-Map Making Some Important Strides – NIC-MAP has expanded to an additional forty metro markets for its traditional data reporting and is adding two important products – actual monthly rent, occupancy and turnover information for a national sample of 250,000 senior housing properties and actual monthly rates by payer source and occupancy for a smaller but growing sample of skilled nursing properties.   These are national surveys electronically reported from operator’s actual month end data and NIC hopes to grow these samples.   This will allow NIC to be much more accurate and timing on rent and other key financial metrics on a national basis and provide benchmarking data to participating operators and other industry participants.
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UnSenior “Seniors Housing”

Earlier this month I toured The Stories at Congressional Plaza, a new type of “seniors housing” project designed to appeal to seniors as well as those of other ages looking for a high-tech, high-service environment in an urban mixed use setting.  The Stories opened in February 2016 and is a joint effort of Federal Realty Investment Trust and Ryan Frederick’s Smart Living 360.

Federal Realty is a publicly traded REIT (NYSE: FRT) that specializes in the ownership, operation, and redevelopment of high quality retail real estate in the country’s best markets and is increasingly developing mixed-use projects in connection with its retail holdings.   Ryan Frederick has long been known as one of the leading thinkers on the future of seniors housing through his Point Forward Solutions consulting company.   Ryan has now created a new company, Smart Living 360, to work with a retail/mixed use developer, rather than a seniors housing company or health care REIT, to bring us his vision of the future of “seniors housing” in a property designed to appeal to seniors but open to those of all ages.

The Stories is a new 48 units apartment building located at 1628 E. Jefferson Street in Rockville, Maryland.   It is part of Federal Realty’s Congressional Plaza redevelopment that includes a high-end shopping center, Federal’s corporate headquarters and an existing 150+/- unit apartment building with structured parking (The Crest), now about 10 years old.   The Stories was developed on a site long designated for residential use as phase 2 of the Crest. According to Ryan, Federal became interested in consciously designing The Stories to appeal to the seniors market because they wanted a way to differentiate the projection from other high-end rental projects in the same area of the Rockville Pike, northwest of Washington and Bethesda.

The Stories is designed to appeal to the baby boomer market, now passing age 67, and other seniors with a “younger” outlook, unlikely to consider independent or assisted living or even a continuing care retirement community (CCRC).   This market is large and rapidly growing and not well served by well served by conventional seniors housing. While those 75 and up are considered part of the senior housing markets in many market studies, the average entrance age for most dedicated senior housing communities is now closer to 85 than 75 (See Slow 80+ Pop Growth, Elevated Construction Spark Concern For Seniors Housing on this blog – http://03c242c.netsolhost.com/WordPress/?p=209.

Ryan and Smart Living 360’s vision for The Stories is derived from a view of what “younger” seniors want in a living environment to enhance their wellbeing and tries to anticipate the growing role of technology for enhancing seniors’ lifestyle and delivering the services they want and need.   It is also purposefully designed to be flexible so it can adapt to the needs of its target market as they are discovered over time.

To understand what Federal and Smart Living 360 have created at The Stories, you need to think outside the traditional seniors housing box regarding design, services and technology.

Physically, The Stories is a attractive 5-story modern apartment community located in high-income, high-wealth, high-education zip code with a unit mix favoring larger 2 and 3 bedroom units (75% 2 bdrms) over one level of structured parking.   With rents from $2,500 to $4,000, The Stories is priced at about half the cost per square foot of traditional IL properties in its market.  But unlike conventional IL properties, The Stories does not bundle food service and activity programs into its rent.   It is part of a mixed-use project including retail, office and other residential uses in a nice residential area a block off a heavily travel arterial street, the Rockville Pike, MD 355.   The property faces other residential uses and fronts on a relatively quiet suburban street.

P1040397

Units within The Stories look like high-end non-age-targeted residential rental units with small balconies that are designed with largely invisible accommodations for an aging senior market – wider doorways and master baths able to accommodate a wheel chair with higher toilets, easy entry showers, modest grab bars in the bath with studs behind the wall to allow more to be installed, roll out lower shelves in cabinets, electrical outlets further up on the wall, etc.   These are accessible units that intentionally look like conventional units.

P1040395

Common areas include a large fitness room with some specialized equipment for seniors that could also be used by personal trainers or rehab therapists, a central lounge with a refrigerator and cooking equipment and a self-serve coffee bar.  
There is a small conference room that is designed so that it can also be used for a visit by a health professional or for telemedicine care.   The entire building is pre-wired for high speed Verizon Fios internet with pre-installed routers; and service providers are available to install Sonos wireless speaker systems and other electronic amenities in the units.   The electronics designed into the building are intended to accommodate increased use of patient self-monitoring and wellness devices that Ryan believes will become increasingly prevalent, sophisticated and integrated over time.

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The building offers a secure electronic entry system, with an enhanced concierge called a Lifestyle Ambassador (services described below) manning the front desk during the day. The building is monitored in the evening by management personnel from the larger Crest Apartment building that is located at the other end of the block, across a parking lot from The Stories.   The number and length of coverage by on-site personnel is partly limited by the buildings relatively small size, only 48 units.

What really sets The Stories apart as a community that will appeal to seniors is its use of a Lifestyle Ambassador, in this case a hotel industry trained and certified concierge cross-trained in seniors housing design and services.   The role of the Lifestyle Ambassador is threefold – 1. Help residents connect with one another and with the outside community, 2. Provide access to any needed services, and 3. Simplify resident’s lives by taking care of pets and plants while residents are traveling and providing other services.   Smart Living 360 makes use of many off-the-shelf on-demand services, has prearranged for a wide range of additional services to be available to residents of The Stories and will provide referrals to providers, including:

  • Transportation
  • Pharmacy
  • Physicians
  • Food Delivery
  • Financial Advisors
  • Case Managers
  • Home Healthcare
  • Personal Trainers
  • Tech Services

The goal at The Stories is to offer attractive housing, location and services to enhance the well being of baby boomers and other “younger”, generally healthy seniors without the stigma of a traditional seniors housing community with a large percentage of very old, frail people; and to do it in a flexible way that allows it residents to order in any services they may need and to adapt to rapidly evolving technology for medical monitoring and wellness.

Smart Living 360 hopes to monitor residents of The Stories over time to see if the building’s design and the flexible services it offers will enhance residents’ well being compared to those living in other residential settings. This will be done using the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index that measures five factors:

  1. Purpose – Liking what you do each day and being motivated to achieve goals
  2. Social – Having supportive relationships in your life
  3. Financial – Managing your economic life to reduce stress and increase security
  4. Community – Liking where you live and having pride in your community
  5. Physical – Having good health and enough energy to get things done.

What is interesting to me about Smart Living 360’s approach compared to a traditional senior housing facility is that Smart Living 360’s Life Style Ambassador begins with the residents’ wishes and customizes activities and services the resident desires while a traditional senior housing facility has a menu of services into which it tries to fit a resident. I see the Smart Living 360 approach as more resident centric, more personalized and more adaptable over time.

The Stories occupies an interesting place somewhere between non-age-restricted market rate apartments and conventional seniors housing.   Interestingly, the project was voluntarily described as 55+ housing in pre-opening marketing material but the developers have now decided to market its advantages for seniors but without the age restriction, which they believe may be a turn-off for their primary but not only target market.   Of the first several residents moving in, two are seniors and one is age 29 but liked the amenities.

It remains to be seen whether The Stories will be successful in attracting baby boomers and other seniors with a “younger” outlook and how Ryan Frederick’s vision of meeting residents’ needs and increased use of electronic devices to monitor and enhance health and wellness will come to pass.   But I believe, even at this stage, The Stories has some interesting lessons for seniors housing and multi-family developer/operators and institutional real estate investors.   These include:

  1. Non-age restricted housing and un-senior “seniors housing”, as I categorize the Stories, may be more appealing to under 80s seniors, and even those over 80 in good health with younger outlook, than more conventional seniors housing projects.   For a significant portion of the senior population today and I believe for even a larger portion of the baby boomers, living in mixed aged neighborhoods or even in mixed age buildings like The Stories may be preferable to living in a senior ghetto or in an isolated age-restricted community.
  2. We have already seen obsolescence in seniors housing communities, such as IL projects without sufficient provisions for handicapped residents, IL and CCRC projects without AL and memory care units, AL communities with insufficient common space for gyms or rehab care and IL and AL buildings with too many small units.   This history suggests that building flexible design into seniors housing communities, which The Stories has very deliberately tried to do, may be an advantage for the community over time.
  3. Seniors housing located in mixed use projects or higher density urban areas, where services and amenities are close-by, while often more difficult and more expensive to develop than stand-alone conventional IL or AL communities, would seem to offer a lot of appeal for the baby boomer age cohort and other active seniors.
  4. In an age of on-demand services, such as Uber and Foodler, planning seniors housing around services delivered by outside vendors may prove both cost effective and better able to meet seniors desires and needs than the service packages typically available in seniors housing communities.
  5. Seniors, particularly the baby boomer age cohort, are increasingly tech-savvy and should be able to adapt to electronic delivery of health and wellness services, as well as other on-demand services, and may see projects designed to accommodate more high-tech amenities as more appealing than conventional care models.
  6. The resident centric and holistic approach to meeting resident’s needs built into the Lifestyle Ambassador approach that incorporates both social and care needs, seems to offer some advantages over the way conventional seniors housing services are organized with responsibility fragmented between healthcare, activities, dining and caregiving personnel, each of whom may only see themselves responsible for a slice of a senior’s needs.   While the staff in any well managed seniors housing project should get to know the “whole resident”, making resident on-demand centric services the organizing principal of your care delivery system appears to offer some advantages and a have a better chance of assuring a residents need are met.

 

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Background

I have been pessimistic about maintaining occupancy and pricing and the risk of overbuilding in private-pay seniors housing.   I shared these concerns, along with lessons learned from the last industry downturn, with the NIC Future Leaders Council at the annual conference of the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing and Care (NIC) in early October and will express similar views when I speak at the Senior Living 100 Conference in March.

Since I am more pessimistic about the risk of overbuilding than NIC MAP® Data Service and many industry professionals, I recently reviewed my assessment by examining the most recent census population projections to estimate demand and updated 3Q15 NIC-MAP information on supply. This blog summarizes the results of that review.

NIC MAP Assessment

NIC MAP data indicates a total supply of U.S. institutional quality private-pay seniors housing units (independent living, assisted living and memory care) as 1,404,000 units as of 4Q14.   It shows construction as a share of inventory for the top 99 markets as of the 3Q15 of 3.3% of existing majority IL supply and 7.9% of majority AL including memory care. If I apply these same shares to the inventory of seniors housing for the nation (1.404 million units), then I estimate that there may be 72,838 units under construction as of 3Q15.

NIC staff estimates that these 72,838 units will be delivered over a two-year period for average annual construction of approximately 36,400 units. This compares to peak construction levels of approximately 45,000 units in the late 1990s when the last significant overbuilding occurred.

NIC MAP’s statistics on demand and supply focus on two key items, % growth in the supply of private-pay seniors housing and the percent of the 75+ household population, or penetration rate, required to fill anticipated construction.  Comparing NIC MAP 4Q14 supply in the top 99 markets to the most recent U.S. Census 2015 population forecast for the entire U.S. 75 + population, NIC-MAP data shows a penetration rate for occupied private-pay seniors housing of 6.25% of the 75+ population in 2015 at a 90.05% occupancy level.  The 75+ population is projected to grow at a compound annual rate of 2.9% between 2016 and 2020 while the seniors housing supply is projected to increase by about 2.6% in 2016 if we assume that half of the units NIC MAP estimates are under construction as of 3Q15 are completed in each of the next two years.

The absolute growth in the entire U.S. 75+ population at a 2.9% annual rate is expected be nearly 626,000 annually.   At a 6.25% occupied penetration rate, this equates to demand for 39,125 new seniors housing units annually between 2016 and 2020 compared to annual unit growth from new construction according to NIC staff of 36,419 (72,838/2).   The market’s ability to absorb projected levels of new construction would appear even better on a net basis if obsolete units being removed from the market were to be deducted from the estimated growth in supply based solely on units under construction.   Using NIC MAP estimated supply growth rate (without any assumed demolition) the 75+ occupied penetration rate could actually decrease to 6.1% in 2020 while still keeping private-pay senior housing occupancy at the 90.1% level as of 3Q15 and filling projected development at its current rate to this same level of occupancy.

The key takeaways from this analysis of Census and NIC MAP data are:

  • Private-pay seniors housing construction levels in the US are elevated compared to recent years but below late 1990s peaks.
  • Demand is sufficient to accommodate current levels of construction because the 75+ population is growing at 2.9% annually between 2016 and 2020 vs. supply growth of about 2.6%.
  • Growth in the 75+ population between 2016 and 2020 will produce sufficient absolute growth in demand at a 6.25% penetration rate (39,125 units annually) to absorb projected seniors housing supply growth (36,125 units annually).
  • With the exception of some select markets, NIC MAP data indicates occupancy can be maintained without an increase, and even with a small decrease, in the 75+ occupied penetration rate of private-pay seniors housing.
  • Some older obsolete units will be removed from the market, further brightening the prospects for private pay seniors housing compared with estimates of supply growth based solely on units under construction.
  • Many industry leaders report little evidence of overbuilding in their markets.

Why I Am Concerned

I don’t dispute the NIC-MAP data factually or the view of many industry leaders but I believe they overlook three key items: (1) the increasing age of entry of new residents into private-pay seniors housing, (2) near-term growth in the senior population is concentrated in the “younger” 75 – 79 age group and (3) high turnover means newly constructed seniors housing is very competitive with the existing supply. These are the items that make me pessimistic about the near-term performance of private-pay seniors housing.

Increasing Age Of Entry – Different studies report different numbers for average age of senior housing residents and average entry age, but it is fair to say that in 2008/09 studies the average age of residents ranged from 82 in majority IL properties to 84 in majority AL properties and has moved higher.   Estimated entry ages for IL and AL are now closer to the mid-80s according to many operators.   This is important because much of the growth in the supply of private-pay seniors housing is in AL and Memory Care units that appeal to seniors over age 85, while much of the growth in the 75+ population will occur in the younger end of this age cohort.

Growth75+

Near-Term Growth Concentrated in Seniors Less Than 80 – The chart above shows projected population growth from the most recent projections of the US Census Bureau for the 75-79, 80-84 and 85+ age groups for the periods 2016–2020, 2021–2025 and 2026-2030.   Focusing on the 2016–2020 period you can see that growth is highest for the 75-79 age group, while much lower for seniors 80 and above.   As a result, when NIC MAP and others use a 75+ penetration rate it may overstate demand for private-pay seniors housing because residents are not moving in on average until 82 – 84 and perhaps 85 or higher for AL.

The chart below further refines population growth for seniors between age 80 and 87 to illustrate how dramatically growth is skewed toward seniors less that 85 between 2016 and 2020.

Growth 80 - 87

Near-Term Outlook Looks Worse On 80+ Penetration Rate – If we look at private-pay seniors housing penetration rates for the 80+ rather than 75+, the 4Q14 penetration rate for occupied units is 10.1% at the national level.   Annual projected demand between 2016 and 2020 for the entire 80+ population at this penetration rate is only 23,123 units, compared to current construction levels of 36,400 units per year and the 80+ penetration rate would have to rise to 10.8% in order to maintain senior housing occupancy and accommodate unit growth at current levels to 2020. (This analysis assumes that the rate of construction as a share of inventory exhibited currently for the 99 markets is the same for the non-99 markets as well.)   Slow growth in the 80 – 87 age group most likely to move into private-pay seniors housing (particularly in the 85+ age group) and the need for a significant increase in the 80+ penetration rate in order to maintain current occupancy levels raise concern about the industry’s ability to maintain private-pay seniors housing occupancy and rate and accommodate new unit growth near term, even if we assume some reduction in the supply as obsolete units are removed from the market.

Turnover – Data for YE2014 as reported in ASHA’s The State of Seniors Housing 2015 shows turnover rates of 26.2% for majority IL properties and 51.6% for majority AL properties for a weighted average of 36.5%.   With a total private-pay seniors housing supply of 1.404 million units and a 90.05% occupancy level, this means that 462,000 units need to be filled annually just to maintain current occupancy.    These relatively high rates of turnover, particularly for AL properties, mean that the existing stock of private-pay seniors housing is constantly competing with any newly constructed units and any degree of overbuilding is likely to quickly put pressure on occupancy and pricing in the existing stock, in my view.

When Will Supply Demand Improve – In order to assess when demand/supply conditions for private-pay seniors housing will improve, in the chart below I project growth in the supply of seniors housing into the future assuming the same rate of annual growth in supply seen in 3Q15.   This rate of growth (5.24% weighted average) is applied to the supply at the beginning of each five year period and held constant over each five-year period.  Once we pass 2020, as the chart indicates, the future of private-pay seniors housing is increasingly bright, with higher demand driven by increased longevity and, after 2026, the long-touted and final arrival of the baby boomers to an age when they might actually consider seniors housing.

Supply Demand

However, when you look closely at the above numbers, you see that 80+ demand begins to exceed the growth in supply only slightly in the 2021-2025 and really strong demand from 80+ seniors relative to the level of supply growth does not begin to appear until after 2026, when the Baby Boomers (1946 to 1964) begin turning 80.

Reasons For Near-Term Pessimism – While not every seniors housing market will get overbuilt and many high-barrier-to-entry markets may avoid the adverse impact of additional private-pay seniors housing development, I believe the data above supports my pessimistic view on private-pay seniors housing occupancy, rate and the risk of overbuilding over the next 3 – 5 years. If we keep building at current levels as a percent of supply and we focus on demand from 80+ seniors, it appears that the seniors housing industry will substantially overbuild the market over the next five years. In the period from 2021-2025, the amount by which projected 80+ demand will exceed projected supply growth should be sufficient to help absorb some of the excess supply created in 2016-2020 but may not be high enough to support a significant increase in occupancy or rate or a true senior housing boom.   The golden age in terms of demand is really a post-2026 event assuming supply growth continues at today’s rate, the health of baby boomers at 80 is about the same as today’s 80 year olds and boomers will find seniors housing as it is currently being designed and built attractive.

Keys To Success In A More Competitive Environment And Future Arrival Of The Boomers

In order to outperform in the more competitive environment for private-pay seniors housing that I see over the next 3-5 years, I believe operators should:

  • Limit new development near term
  • Focus on high barrier to entry markets
  • Try to reduce turnover
  • Design/Redesign/Market properties to attract under-80 or early 80s seniors by focusing on IL rather than AL and rethinking locations and amenities to appeal to “younger” seniors
  • Increase their equity cushion and line up capital in order to be able to bid for more attractively priced acquisitions if occupancy and rates fall and some new product cannot be filled as anticipated

In future blogs, I will discuss some of the cutting edge product that I believe will appeal to Under-80 seniors and look at the housing alternatives to private-pay seniors housing for this age group such as staying in their homes or choosing mixed age condos and apartments, using support services where necessary.

Technical Notes

I want to acknowledge the help of my friends at NIC in preparing this blog, even though it takes a more negative view on the near-term outlook for the industry.   I particularly want to acknowledge the help of Robert Kramer, Beth Burnham Mace and Chris McGraw.   Dave Schless at ASHA also reviewed an early draft and gave me his feedback.

I do not intend to malign NIC MAP data in this blog post. The advent and growth of NIC MAP data is a great tool for the industry and one that should help us avoid the rampant overbuilding seen in private-pay seniors housing in the late 1990s.   NIC MAP makes no statement about the appropriateness of the 75 plus penetration rate and demand, per se. NIC MAP adopted the 75 plus household cohort a number of years ago because it has been traditionally been used in the sector by feasibility analysts and others.

I also want to acknowledge two industry reports that cover some of the same material noted here but reach somewhat different conclusions. These are: Beth Mace’s Demographic Update Commentary, circulated by NIC in July, 2015 and Phil Downey’s and Larry Rouvelas’ A Projection of Demand for Market Rate U.S. Seniors Housing 2010 – 2030 published by American Seniors Housing Association Winter 2013.

NIC defines institutional quality private-pay seniors housing as properties with 20 or more units. NIC normally calculates penetration based by comparing the total supply of private-pay seniors housing in the top 99 markets to the total U.S. 75+ household cohort (not the entire household and institutional 75+ population).

In this analysis, I compare the total number of estimated occupied private-pay senior housing units in the U.S. to the total U.S. population of 75 and over and 80 and over seniors.   I believe use of a penetration rate based on actual occupancy rather than including vacant units is more accurate but use of either an occupied or total supply penetration rate would produce essentially the same result as indicated above.

While households are the standard unit of demand for housing of all types, NIC, other researchers and I also use population to measure future demand because the Census Bureau does detailed population projections by age but not projections of households.   Various commercial data services do project households by age.   One other cautionary note when thinking about demand projections for seniors housing is that male longevity has been improving, meaning more very old two person households and potentially less unit demand for private-pay seniors housing than population projections alone may indicate.

There are also some limitations in how I project supply growth.   I use NIC MAP construction estimates as of 3Q15 for the top 99 markets, make the assumption that these units will be delivered evenly over two years and that this same rate of growth is occurring in the rest of the country outside the top 99 markets and will continue in the future.

While I believe the assumptions used in this assessment are reasonable and have reviewed them with NIC staff, I believe it would be very helpful for the industry for NIC, ASHA or an independent academic researcher to undertake a demand / supply analysis using household projections by age, seniors housing supply and construction data for just the top 99 markets and include in this an updated survey of the actual entry ages for seniors housing today.   Such a study would allow us to better select an aged-based penetration rate at 75, 80 or 85 and would eliminate some of the uncertainty created by mixing population and supply data for the entire U.S. with occupancy and construction stats for the top 99 markets.

I welcome your comments on this blog post.

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Observations from NIC 25th National Conference

The National Investment Center for Seniors Housing and Care (NIC) http://www.nic.org held its 25th National Conference this week at the Gaylord National Harbor, just south of Washington.   I attended the first NIC Conference, which was a much smaller affair at a hotel in Crystal City, also just south of Washington but on the Virginia side of the Potomac.    Having spent much of my career in seniors housing and care as a real estate analyst, stock analyst, investment banker and now occasional consultant, it was very gratifying to see how much the industry has grown and matured in 25 years.

My only official role at the conference was to address the Future Leader’s Council (FLC), which is a carefully selected group that goes through three years of NIC leadership development activities before “graduating”, with a third of the group rotating each year.    I was impressed with the FLC members with whom I interacted and with the thoughtful way NIC is helping talented professionals grow into leadership roles at their organizations and in the industry.

My address to the FLC group was entitled “Back To The Future” and focused on lessons learned about the impacts of overbuilding and higher interest rates in the severe 1999/2000 industry downturn.   Most FLC members were still in primary or secondary school when this downturned occurred.

I would say the overall atmosphere of the industry at NIC’s 25th National Conference was “nervous optimism”.

The nervousness comes from:

  • generally unsettled economic conditions in the U.S. and around the world that could lead to higher interest rates and growing wage pressures on an industry for which labor is 50% or more of costs,
  • recent softness in private-pay senior housing occupancy,
  • a increase in the number of units being developed (particularly assisted living and memory care) and signs of overbuilding in select markets,
  • integration stumbles at the largest and largest publicly traded senior housing operator, Brookdale Senior Living (BKD),
  • some signs of a plateau in senior housing property capitalization rates and pricing,
  • a late summer sell off in healthcare REITs and generally unsettled conditions in the equity and debt markets, which appear to be driving the pause or potentially a backup in cap rate compression.

The optimism comes from:

  • a 15 year rebound in fundamentals from the last major industry downturn,
  • generally outperforming other real estate sectors through the Great Recession,
  • still strong consumer acceptance of newly open properties, particularly in high barrier to entry markets,
  • plentiful availability and still growing interest in the industry from both debt and equity capital providers, if perhaps at higher prices that were seen a year ago,
  • knowing that the industry continues to get closer to the holy grail of  75M + Baby Boomers becoming seniors housing and care customers (although still 10 – 15 years away).

Unless you are concerned about substantial overbuilding in private-pay seniors housing, which most thoughtful insiders are not (there will be some), the recent pullback in both healthcare REIT and operator pricing is making me more interested in investing in publicly traded healthcare REITs and private pay operators but there are few publicly traded operators to buy.    On the care side of seniors housing and care, there has also been a pull back that makes skilled nursing and post acute care company stocks attractive from a valuation standpoint.    Here, however, the slow evolution of a more integrated healthcare delivery system and new value-base purchasing and an uncertain political situation through the next Presidential election may keep a lid on valuations for another year or two.    Either way, it feels like a time to be considering investments in seniors housing and care for the long term investor.   I will leave it to those still working as equity analysts in the space to recommend specific stocks.

There are also signs at the conference that innovations in technology, property location and design are alive and well.  At least two efforts are underway to develop new senior housing properties in Manhattan.   The most interesting new building model I saw at the conference is a mid-rise product located in an urban main street location that looks more like an upscale yuppie rental project or W hotel, with services delivered on demand by the likes of Uber, Amazon Fresh and online home health providers.     This project is being developed by Smart Living 360 and Federal Realty Trust (FRT) in Rockville, MD and is scheduled to open in the Spring of 2016.   See website http://www.thestories.com/ for more information.

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