Posts Tagged ‘ASHA’

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Most seniors and their families see the monthly cost of a senior housing facility as much higher than the monthly cost of living at home with family care, or even with part-time or full-time home healthcare.   But the math that most seniors and families use to make this comparison assumes no implied cost for occupying a home without a mortgage, much less paid care than is provided in a seniors housing facility and places no value on the companionship and social interaction that a seniors housing community can provide.

This analysis, using data from a variety of sources, attempts to make a fair apples-to-apples comparison, before and after taxes, of the cost for a senior living at-home without care, living at-home with a modest amount of paid care and living in an independent living, assisted living or memory care facility.

The chart below shows the comparison on a pre-tax basis of living at home with a modest level of care to the cost of various types of seniors housing communities.   Bottom Line – The cost of living in a $150,000 home with even a modest level of home healthcare can easily exceed the cost of an independent living community and approaches the cost of assisted living.  In addition, a senior living at home with part-time care does not get the companionship and social interaction that a seniors housing community can provide and which many studies show are beneficial for a senior’s mental acuity and well being.

Please read below for details and I welcome your comments and questions.

 

THE COST OF A SENIOR HOUSING COMMUNITY

The cost of various seniors housing settings is easy for seniors and their families to see because most facilities charge a monthly fee for housing and care.   The average monthly cost for this care according to a recent survey by the National Investment Center for the Senior Housing and Care Industry (NIC) is as follows:

  • Independent Living – $3,076 per month
  • Assisted Living – $4,722 per month
  • Memory Care – $6,082 per month

To these costs, we need to add some additional expenses for a senior living in a seniors housing community for social and entertainment activities, transportation and non-housing living expenses.   I have estimated these at half the estimated cost of someone living at home based on data from the “A Place for Mom.com” website, at a total of $475 per month.  I assume half the cost of a senior living at home for someone living in seniors housing because many of these services are provided in a typical seniors housing facility and are included in the monthly rate. I add another $183 per month for a senior living in a seniors housing community for utilities, cable television, wifi and phone and renters insurance. Adding a combined $658 per month for things like phone, cable TV, some outside meals, transportation and other living expenses to the monthly fee for seniors housing communities brings the total monthly cost for living in senior housing rounded to the nearest $100 to:

  • Independent Living – $3,700 per month
  • Assisted Living – $5,400 per month
  • Memory Care – $6,700 per month

 

AT HOME LIVING AND HOME OPERATING COSTS

When the total monthly cost for senior housing and care at the above settings are compared to the out-of-pocket costs for a senior living in a $150,000 home without a mortgage they certainly appear formidable.     A Place for Mom estimates the monthly out-of-pocket cost for a average senior living at home (in a home we assume is worth about $150,000) without a mortgage to be approximately $2,400, broken down as follows.

Maintenance costs $272
Utilities including phone and cable $265
Property Taxes $149
Property Insurance $78
Three meals per day $494
Housekeeping services $118
Emergency alarm system $50
Transportation $715
Social and entertainment $235

It is this $2,400 figure (or something lower because the senior in question has curtailed her social, entertainment and transportation expenses) that most seniors and their families compare to the $3,700 to $6,700 monthly cost of facility-based senior housing and care.   Therefore, seniors and their families generally see facility-based care as 50% to 275% more expensive than having a senior live at home.

But the above comparison ignores the value of the house in which a senior is living and ignores the cost of caregiving and the socialization benefits that a senior would receive if she were living in a seniors housing facility.   Let’s deal with each of these separately.

 

ESTIMATED HOUSING COSTS FOR $150,000 HOME

To account for the value of the home itself, I estimate implied rent (essentially an estimate of the amount you could earn from renting the house) using a 7% cap rate on the assumed $150,000 value of the home, at $875 per month ($150,000 x .07 / 12), which seems very modest for many U.S. housing markets.

When you combine the above monthly costs for home maintenance, taxes and operation and living expenses of $2,400 per month with the implied rent, we get an estimated monthly housing and living cost for a senior living in a $150,000 home of $3,275 (approximately $2,400 for living and home operational expenses, plus $875 in implied rent).

From the above analysis you can see that the cost of living expenses, home maintenance and operation and implied rent/housing costs for a senior living on one’s own $150,000 home, calculated in what I believe is a conservative fashion, is nearly 90% of the average cost of a senior living in an independent living facility.   And in the independent living facility the senior is getting much more interaction with other people, much more socialization and mental stimulation than most seniors get when living at home alone.

 

ESTIMATED HOUSING COSTS FOR $500,000 CONDOMINIUM

Doing the same math for a senior living in a $500,000 condominium yields estimated monthly living and home operating expenses of $4,449 broken down as follows:

Condo Fees $2,000
Maintenance costs
Utilities including phone and cable $165
Property Taxes $542
Property Insurance $130
Three meals per day $494
Housekeeping services $118
Emergency alarm system $50
Transportation $715
Social and entertainment $235

The implied rent calculation for a $500,000 condo is $2,917 per month ($500,000 x 7% / 12). Combining monthly living and home operating expenses with the implied rent for a $500,000 condo indicates a total monthly cost of living at home, including implied rent, without care at approximately $7,400.

When the above figure is compared to the cost of seniors housing, you can see that the estimated monthly cost of a senior living in a $500,000 condo is almost twice the cost of independent living and 36% higher than the cost of assisted living. You can argue that comparing the cost of a $500,000 condo with the average cost of seniors housing is an unfair comparison because these facilities would cost more in an expensive real estate market. But I believe the calculation on a $500,000 condo is fair for the Baltimore market, where I Iive, and I believe it is fair to say that when a true apples-to-apples comparison of housing, home operation and living costs for senior is made to the cost of living in a seniors housing facility, the difference is smaller than most seniors and families realize before even taking into account the cost of care.

 

HOME CARE COSTS

From the above analysis, we see that the cost of a senior remaining at home is less than the cost of any type of seniors housing community, even independent living, for a senior in a modest $150,000 home.   However, as soon as any degree of paid home healthcare is provided the cost advantages of living at home disappear.

According to A Place For Mom and other surveys conducted by insurance companies offering long term care insurance, the cost of in-home care ranges from $14 – $24 per hour.   Certainly at the lower end of this range we are talking about a companion or an aid, not a trained nursing. If you assume only four hours of care per day and only five days per week with family providing care on weekend, the monthly cost of this much home healthcare would range from $1,120 ($14 x 4 hours x 5 days x 4 weeks) to $1,920 per month ($24 x 4 hours x 5 days x 4 weeks).   If we use the average of these two figures, the monthly cost for four hours of home healthcare five days a week is $1,520.

When you add the cost of four hours of home care during the week to the cost of housing noted above, the monthly cost of housing plus a modest level of home health would be approximately:

$150,000 Home $4,800
$500,000 Condo $8,900

No cost is assumed for family care on weekends.

As the chart at the beginning of this post indicates, as soon as a modest level of home care, in this case four hours per day five days a week, is added to the cost of a home, home operation and living expenses, the cost of living at home with home care, even for a modestly priced home, easily exceeds the cost of independent living and is nearly 90% of the cost of an assisted living facility.

 

TAX CONSIDERATIONS

In general terms, healthcare costs exceeding 7.5% of income of a senior’s income are deductible. This includes long term care costs if the senior is chronically ill and is is being cared for pursuant to a plan of care prescribed by a licensed health care practitioner.

If a family member younger than age 65 is paying for care, healthcare costs exceeding 10% of the income of the family member paying for care are deductible.   This can apply to home care prescribed by a licensed health care practitioner but not a senior’s housing costs while living at home.

In a seniors housing facility the cost of healthcare provided in assisted living or a memory care facility that exceeds 7.5% of income may be deductible if required by a senior’s medical condition and it is possible that the full cost of facility-based care including housing component may be deductible if living in such a facility is considered essential for medical reasons.   See IRS Publication 502 https://www.irs.gov/publications/p502/ar02.html for more information and consult with an accounting professional for more complete information.

 

AVAILABILITY OF GOVERNMENT ASSISTANCE

While many people believe it does, Medicare does not pay for long-term custodial care at home or in a seniors housing facility.   It may pay for short-term home health, therapy or nursing care at-home or in a facility if is prescribed by a physician in response to a particular medical need.

Medicaid will pay for long-term custodial care in skilled nursing facility but only after all other resources are exhausted.   Some states have waiver programs that allow Medicaid to be used for assisted living and memory care or at-home community-based care, but as is the case with nursing home care, Medicaid will pay only after all other resources are exhausted. In addition, the last proposed Republican repeal and replace of the Affordable Care Act included significant cuts to Medicaid that could potentially reduce the availability of Medicaid funds for long term care for seniors.

Veteran’s benefits include increased Veteran’s Aids and Attendance Pensions payment for care in a seniors housing or long term care facility under certain circumstances and seniors who qualify for Veteran’s benefits should investigate this option.

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Posted in Alzheimer's, Dementia, Finance, Paying For Care, Senior Housing & Care | 6 Comments »

On Monday June 6, 2016, The “Ask Encore” column by Glenn Ruffenach in the Wall Street Journal responded to a question from a reader about “what features, at a minimum, should be added to our current home or incorporated in a new home so that we can stay in our home as we get older.”   The columnist’s response identified three resources to make a home accessible and adaptable for seniors.   These included:

These all appear to be useful resources and the Wall Street Journal column cites the Harvard Study as saying five features, in particular, that make for safe and acceptable homes are: no-step entries; single-floor living; switches and outlets reachable at any height; extra-wide hallways and doors and lever-style door and faucet handles.   The Harvard Study indicates that 90% of existing homes have one of these features but that only 57% have more than one.

Research (AARP United States of Aging Survey, 2012) indicates that 90% of seniors would prefer to stay in their own home vs. moving to a seniors housing community and I have no doubt that for some seniors making adaptations to an existing home or buying a new home with adaptable feature may allow them to defer a move to seniors housing for some period of time.  However, because of most seniors’ strong bias toward staying in an existing home, I see far too many seniors resisting a move to seniors housing even when this would be more beneficial for their health, their finances and their families.

I believe it is important for a senior and her or his family to also consider other issues when considering whether to modify an existing home vs. moving to a seniors housing community. Chief among these are (1) the location of one’s existing home, (2) the age and medical conditions of the residents, (3) access to companions and support services, and (4) the cost of maintaining a home.  The key points I want to make are:

  • seniors and their families need to think through how making accessibility improvements to a home will meet a senior’s physical and mental health needs over time, not just at a single point in time, and
  • staying vs. moving should be considered in light of the full occupancy and care costs for each alternative.

Location

Location is important for the resident, her or his family and other formal or informal caregivers. Too often, seniors of advancing age become increasingly isolated in their homes because they are not located where public transportation, taxi or Uber-like services are readily available. If this is the case, as a senior’s ability to drive diminishes, which it invariably does, a senior’s ability to visit friends, see medical professionals, attend social, educational and civic events will be restricted with negative implications for their physical and mental health. If they are living alone, studies have show poor diet and social isolation can take a heavy toll. Technology may be able to reduce these isolating effects in the future but is not yet able to overcome all the location issues noted here.

Location is also important for family members and other formal and informal caregivers. If you live hundreds of miles from your children or if your home is not readily accessible in good and bad weather to formal and informal caregivers, a home modified to be accessible for a senior may still prove unable to meet a senior’s needs over time as their physical or mental health deteriorates and caregivers are needed.

Age and Medical Condition

The age and medical condition of residents is also important to consider when thinking about whether to modify one’s home or move to a retirement community. Physical limitations, such as needing a walker, shower grab bars, lever door handles can help extend the ability of an existing home to accommodate a senior. But, if a senior is 85 or older or has medical conditions that will escalate over time, the benefit of these types of improvements may be short lived and fully modifying a home for a wheelchair equipped senior – completely flat floors, wider doorways, larger baths with turning radius for a wheelchair can get very expensive. In addition, if a senior has early signs of dementia, this condition too is likely to deteriorate over time and may require a more secure setting with full time care at some point, which an individual’s home cannot provide.

Access to Companions and Support Services

The cost to bring qualified caregivers and other support services into one home can quickly exceed the cost of a seniors housing community if care is required on a 24/7 basis. It can also be difficult for a senior or their family to manage care and home maintenance services and to monitor the quality of care delivered in a senior’s home, particularly if the family does not live nearby.   The availability of qualified caregivers varies with geography, with access to public transportation and with population density tending to improve the availability of care.

Cost of Maintaining A Home

When comparing the costs of staying in one’s home vs. moving to a senior housing community, seniors and their families too often view the cost of staying in one’s home as only including the cost of making accessibility modifications and do not fully consider the cost of part-time or full-item care, the cost of taxes and maintenance, or the income that can be generated from investing proceeds from the sale of a home. This sticker shock of a $2,500 to $6,000 per month fee for seniors housing may seem a lot less daunting when one makes a accurate assessment of the costs of staying at home.   It is also important to understand that the average length of stay for an 85 + senior in assisted living is about two years, so $150,000 in home sales proceeds is usually sufficient to fund an average stay.

There is some additional discussion of housing options and issues to consider when moving to seniors housing on this blog www.robustretirement.com.  The American Seniors Housing Association also has a new website Where You Live Matters with a lot of information for seniors considering whether to stay in their existing homes or move to a retirement community, including cost calculators.    Specific posts on this website that may be of interest include:

 

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Posted in Finance, Lifestyle Choices, Senior Housing & Care | 1 Comment »

UnSenior “Seniors Housing”

Earlier this month I toured The Stories at Congressional Plaza, a new type of “seniors housing” project designed to appeal to seniors as well as those of other ages looking for a high-tech, high-service environment in an urban mixed use setting.  The Stories opened in February 2016 and is a joint effort of Federal Realty Investment Trust and Ryan Frederick’s Smart Living 360.

Federal Realty is a publicly traded REIT (NYSE: FRT) that specializes in the ownership, operation, and redevelopment of high quality retail real estate in the country’s best markets and is increasingly developing mixed-use projects in connection with its retail holdings.   Ryan Frederick has long been known as one of the leading thinkers on the future of seniors housing through his Point Forward Solutions consulting company.   Ryan has now created a new company, Smart Living 360, to work with a retail/mixed use developer, rather than a seniors housing company or health care REIT, to bring us his vision of the future of “seniors housing” in a property designed to appeal to seniors but open to those of all ages.

The Stories is a new 48 units apartment building located at 1628 E. Jefferson Street in Rockville, Maryland.   It is part of Federal Realty’s Congressional Plaza redevelopment that includes a high-end shopping center, Federal’s corporate headquarters and an existing 150+/- unit apartment building with structured parking (The Crest), now about 10 years old.   The Stories was developed on a site long designated for residential use as phase 2 of the Crest. According to Ryan, Federal became interested in consciously designing The Stories to appeal to the seniors market because they wanted a way to differentiate the projection from other high-end rental projects in the same area of the Rockville Pike, northwest of Washington and Bethesda.

The Stories is designed to appeal to the baby boomer market, now passing age 67, and other seniors with a “younger” outlook, unlikely to consider independent or assisted living or even a continuing care retirement community (CCRC).   This market is large and rapidly growing and not well served by well served by conventional seniors housing. While those 75 and up are considered part of the senior housing markets in many market studies, the average entrance age for most dedicated senior housing communities is now closer to 85 than 75 (See Slow 80+ Pop Growth, Elevated Construction Spark Concern For Seniors Housing on this blog – http://03c242c.netsolhost.com/WordPress/?p=209.

Ryan and Smart Living 360’s vision for The Stories is derived from a view of what “younger” seniors want in a living environment to enhance their wellbeing and tries to anticipate the growing role of technology for enhancing seniors’ lifestyle and delivering the services they want and need.   It is also purposefully designed to be flexible so it can adapt to the needs of its target market as they are discovered over time.

To understand what Federal and Smart Living 360 have created at The Stories, you need to think outside the traditional seniors housing box regarding design, services and technology.

Physically, The Stories is a attractive 5-story modern apartment community located in high-income, high-wealth, high-education zip code with a unit mix favoring larger 2 and 3 bedroom units (75% 2 bdrms) over one level of structured parking.   With rents from $2,500 to $4,000, The Stories is priced at about half the cost per square foot of traditional IL properties in its market.  But unlike conventional IL properties, The Stories does not bundle food service and activity programs into its rent.   It is part of a mixed-use project including retail, office and other residential uses in a nice residential area a block off a heavily travel arterial street, the Rockville Pike, MD 355.   The property faces other residential uses and fronts on a relatively quiet suburban street.

P1040397

Units within The Stories look like high-end non-age-targeted residential rental units with small balconies that are designed with largely invisible accommodations for an aging senior market – wider doorways and master baths able to accommodate a wheel chair with higher toilets, easy entry showers, modest grab bars in the bath with studs behind the wall to allow more to be installed, roll out lower shelves in cabinets, electrical outlets further up on the wall, etc.   These are accessible units that intentionally look like conventional units.

P1040395

Common areas include a large fitness room with some specialized equipment for seniors that could also be used by personal trainers or rehab therapists, a central lounge with a refrigerator and cooking equipment and a self-serve coffee bar.  
There is a small conference room that is designed so that it can also be used for a visit by a health professional or for telemedicine care.   The entire building is pre-wired for high speed Verizon Fios internet with pre-installed routers; and service providers are available to install Sonos wireless speaker systems and other electronic amenities in the units.   The electronics designed into the building are intended to accommodate increased use of patient self-monitoring and wellness devices that Ryan believes will become increasingly prevalent, sophisticated and integrated over time.

P1040391

The building offers a secure electronic entry system, with an enhanced concierge called a Lifestyle Ambassador (services described below) manning the front desk during the day. The building is monitored in the evening by management personnel from the larger Crest Apartment building that is located at the other end of the block, across a parking lot from The Stories.   The number and length of coverage by on-site personnel is partly limited by the buildings relatively small size, only 48 units.

What really sets The Stories apart as a community that will appeal to seniors is its use of a Lifestyle Ambassador, in this case a hotel industry trained and certified concierge cross-trained in seniors housing design and services.   The role of the Lifestyle Ambassador is threefold – 1. Help residents connect with one another and with the outside community, 2. Provide access to any needed services, and 3. Simplify resident’s lives by taking care of pets and plants while residents are traveling and providing other services.   Smart Living 360 makes use of many off-the-shelf on-demand services, has prearranged for a wide range of additional services to be available to residents of The Stories and will provide referrals to providers, including:

  • Transportation
  • Pharmacy
  • Physicians
  • Food Delivery
  • Financial Advisors
  • Case Managers
  • Home Healthcare
  • Personal Trainers
  • Tech Services

The goal at The Stories is to offer attractive housing, location and services to enhance the well being of baby boomers and other “younger”, generally healthy seniors without the stigma of a traditional seniors housing community with a large percentage of very old, frail people; and to do it in a flexible way that allows it residents to order in any services they may need and to adapt to rapidly evolving technology for medical monitoring and wellness.

Smart Living 360 hopes to monitor residents of The Stories over time to see if the building’s design and the flexible services it offers will enhance residents’ well being compared to those living in other residential settings. This will be done using the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index that measures five factors:

  1. Purpose – Liking what you do each day and being motivated to achieve goals
  2. Social – Having supportive relationships in your life
  3. Financial – Managing your economic life to reduce stress and increase security
  4. Community – Liking where you live and having pride in your community
  5. Physical – Having good health and enough energy to get things done.

What is interesting to me about Smart Living 360’s approach compared to a traditional senior housing facility is that Smart Living 360’s Life Style Ambassador begins with the residents’ wishes and customizes activities and services the resident desires while a traditional senior housing facility has a menu of services into which it tries to fit a resident. I see the Smart Living 360 approach as more resident centric, more personalized and more adaptable over time.

The Stories occupies an interesting place somewhere between non-age-restricted market rate apartments and conventional seniors housing.   Interestingly, the project was voluntarily described as 55+ housing in pre-opening marketing material but the developers have now decided to market its advantages for seniors but without the age restriction, which they believe may be a turn-off for their primary but not only target market.   Of the first several residents moving in, two are seniors and one is age 29 but liked the amenities.

It remains to be seen whether The Stories will be successful in attracting baby boomers and other seniors with a “younger” outlook and how Ryan Frederick’s vision of meeting residents’ needs and increased use of electronic devices to monitor and enhance health and wellness will come to pass.   But I believe, even at this stage, The Stories has some interesting lessons for seniors housing and multi-family developer/operators and institutional real estate investors.   These include:

  1. Non-age restricted housing and un-senior “seniors housing”, as I categorize the Stories, may be more appealing to under 80s seniors, and even those over 80 in good health with younger outlook, than more conventional seniors housing projects.   For a significant portion of the senior population today and I believe for even a larger portion of the baby boomers, living in mixed aged neighborhoods or even in mixed age buildings like The Stories may be preferable to living in a senior ghetto or in an isolated age-restricted community.
  2. We have already seen obsolescence in seniors housing communities, such as IL projects without sufficient provisions for handicapped residents, IL and CCRC projects without AL and memory care units, AL communities with insufficient common space for gyms or rehab care and IL and AL buildings with too many small units.   This history suggests that building flexible design into seniors housing communities, which The Stories has very deliberately tried to do, may be an advantage for the community over time.
  3. Seniors housing located in mixed use projects or higher density urban areas, where services and amenities are close-by, while often more difficult and more expensive to develop than stand-alone conventional IL or AL communities, would seem to offer a lot of appeal for the baby boomer age cohort and other active seniors.
  4. In an age of on-demand services, such as Uber and Foodler, planning seniors housing around services delivered by outside vendors may prove both cost effective and better able to meet seniors desires and needs than the service packages typically available in seniors housing communities.
  5. Seniors, particularly the baby boomer age cohort, are increasingly tech-savvy and should be able to adapt to electronic delivery of health and wellness services, as well as other on-demand services, and may see projects designed to accommodate more high-tech amenities as more appealing than conventional care models.
  6. The resident centric and holistic approach to meeting resident’s needs built into the Lifestyle Ambassador approach that incorporates both social and care needs, seems to offer some advantages over the way conventional seniors housing services are organized with responsibility fragmented between healthcare, activities, dining and caregiving personnel, each of whom may only see themselves responsible for a slice of a senior’s needs.   While the staff in any well managed seniors housing project should get to know the “whole resident”, making resident on-demand centric services the organizing principal of your care delivery system appears to offer some advantages and a have a better chance of assuring a residents need are met.

 

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Posted in Finance, Lifestyle Choices, Senior Housing & Care, Senior Housing Innovation, Suburban Office Reuse | 3 Comments »

Background

I have been pessimistic about maintaining occupancy and pricing and the risk of overbuilding in private-pay seniors housing.   I shared these concerns, along with lessons learned from the last industry downturn, with the NIC Future Leaders Council at the annual conference of the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing and Care (NIC) in early October and will express similar views when I speak at the Senior Living 100 Conference in March.

Since I am more pessimistic about the risk of overbuilding than NIC MAP® Data Service and many industry professionals, I recently reviewed my assessment by examining the most recent census population projections to estimate demand and updated 3Q15 NIC-MAP information on supply. This blog summarizes the results of that review.

NIC MAP Assessment

NIC MAP data indicates a total supply of U.S. institutional quality private-pay seniors housing units (independent living, assisted living and memory care) as 1,404,000 units as of 4Q14.   It shows construction as a share of inventory for the top 99 markets as of the 3Q15 of 3.3% of existing majority IL supply and 7.9% of majority AL including memory care. If I apply these same shares to the inventory of seniors housing for the nation (1.404 million units), then I estimate that there may be 72,838 units under construction as of 3Q15.

NIC staff estimates that these 72,838 units will be delivered over a two-year period for average annual construction of approximately 36,400 units. This compares to peak construction levels of approximately 45,000 units in the late 1990s when the last significant overbuilding occurred.

NIC MAP’s statistics on demand and supply focus on two key items, % growth in the supply of private-pay seniors housing and the percent of the 75+ household population, or penetration rate, required to fill anticipated construction.  Comparing NIC MAP 4Q14 supply in the top 99 markets to the most recent U.S. Census 2015 population forecast for the entire U.S. 75 + population, NIC-MAP data shows a penetration rate for occupied private-pay seniors housing of 6.25% of the 75+ population in 2015 at a 90.05% occupancy level.  The 75+ population is projected to grow at a compound annual rate of 2.9% between 2016 and 2020 while the seniors housing supply is projected to increase by about 2.6% in 2016 if we assume that half of the units NIC MAP estimates are under construction as of 3Q15 are completed in each of the next two years.

The absolute growth in the entire U.S. 75+ population at a 2.9% annual rate is expected be nearly 626,000 annually.   At a 6.25% occupied penetration rate, this equates to demand for 39,125 new seniors housing units annually between 2016 and 2020 compared to annual unit growth from new construction according to NIC staff of 36,419 (72,838/2).   The market’s ability to absorb projected levels of new construction would appear even better on a net basis if obsolete units being removed from the market were to be deducted from the estimated growth in supply based solely on units under construction.   Using NIC MAP estimated supply growth rate (without any assumed demolition) the 75+ occupied penetration rate could actually decrease to 6.1% in 2020 while still keeping private-pay senior housing occupancy at the 90.1% level as of 3Q15 and filling projected development at its current rate to this same level of occupancy.

The key takeaways from this analysis of Census and NIC MAP data are:

  • Private-pay seniors housing construction levels in the US are elevated compared to recent years but below late 1990s peaks.
  • Demand is sufficient to accommodate current levels of construction because the 75+ population is growing at 2.9% annually between 2016 and 2020 vs. supply growth of about 2.6%.
  • Growth in the 75+ population between 2016 and 2020 will produce sufficient absolute growth in demand at a 6.25% penetration rate (39,125 units annually) to absorb projected seniors housing supply growth (36,125 units annually).
  • With the exception of some select markets, NIC MAP data indicates occupancy can be maintained without an increase, and even with a small decrease, in the 75+ occupied penetration rate of private-pay seniors housing.
  • Some older obsolete units will be removed from the market, further brightening the prospects for private pay seniors housing compared with estimates of supply growth based solely on units under construction.
  • Many industry leaders report little evidence of overbuilding in their markets.

Why I Am Concerned

I don’t dispute the NIC-MAP data factually or the view of many industry leaders but I believe they overlook three key items: (1) the increasing age of entry of new residents into private-pay seniors housing, (2) near-term growth in the senior population is concentrated in the “younger” 75 – 79 age group and (3) high turnover means newly constructed seniors housing is very competitive with the existing supply. These are the items that make me pessimistic about the near-term performance of private-pay seniors housing.

Increasing Age Of Entry – Different studies report different numbers for average age of senior housing residents and average entry age, but it is fair to say that in 2008/09 studies the average age of residents ranged from 82 in majority IL properties to 84 in majority AL properties and has moved higher.   Estimated entry ages for IL and AL are now closer to the mid-80s according to many operators.   This is important because much of the growth in the supply of private-pay seniors housing is in AL and Memory Care units that appeal to seniors over age 85, while much of the growth in the 75+ population will occur in the younger end of this age cohort.

Growth75+

Near-Term Growth Concentrated in Seniors Less Than 80 – The chart above shows projected population growth from the most recent projections of the US Census Bureau for the 75-79, 80-84 and 85+ age groups for the periods 2016–2020, 2021–2025 and 2026-2030.   Focusing on the 2016–2020 period you can see that growth is highest for the 75-79 age group, while much lower for seniors 80 and above.   As a result, when NIC MAP and others use a 75+ penetration rate it may overstate demand for private-pay seniors housing because residents are not moving in on average until 82 – 84 and perhaps 85 or higher for AL.

The chart below further refines population growth for seniors between age 80 and 87 to illustrate how dramatically growth is skewed toward seniors less that 85 between 2016 and 2020.

Growth 80 - 87

Near-Term Outlook Looks Worse On 80+ Penetration Rate – If we look at private-pay seniors housing penetration rates for the 80+ rather than 75+, the 4Q14 penetration rate for occupied units is 10.1% at the national level.   Annual projected demand between 2016 and 2020 for the entire 80+ population at this penetration rate is only 23,123 units, compared to current construction levels of 36,400 units per year and the 80+ penetration rate would have to rise to 10.8% in order to maintain senior housing occupancy and accommodate unit growth at current levels to 2020. (This analysis assumes that the rate of construction as a share of inventory exhibited currently for the 99 markets is the same for the non-99 markets as well.)   Slow growth in the 80 – 87 age group most likely to move into private-pay seniors housing (particularly in the 85+ age group) and the need for a significant increase in the 80+ penetration rate in order to maintain current occupancy levels raise concern about the industry’s ability to maintain private-pay seniors housing occupancy and rate and accommodate new unit growth near term, even if we assume some reduction in the supply as obsolete units are removed from the market.

Turnover – Data for YE2014 as reported in ASHA’s The State of Seniors Housing 2015 shows turnover rates of 26.2% for majority IL properties and 51.6% for majority AL properties for a weighted average of 36.5%.   With a total private-pay seniors housing supply of 1.404 million units and a 90.05% occupancy level, this means that 462,000 units need to be filled annually just to maintain current occupancy.    These relatively high rates of turnover, particularly for AL properties, mean that the existing stock of private-pay seniors housing is constantly competing with any newly constructed units and any degree of overbuilding is likely to quickly put pressure on occupancy and pricing in the existing stock, in my view.

When Will Supply Demand Improve – In order to assess when demand/supply conditions for private-pay seniors housing will improve, in the chart below I project growth in the supply of seniors housing into the future assuming the same rate of annual growth in supply seen in 3Q15.   This rate of growth (5.24% weighted average) is applied to the supply at the beginning of each five year period and held constant over each five-year period.  Once we pass 2020, as the chart indicates, the future of private-pay seniors housing is increasingly bright, with higher demand driven by increased longevity and, after 2026, the long-touted and final arrival of the baby boomers to an age when they might actually consider seniors housing.

Supply Demand

However, when you look closely at the above numbers, you see that 80+ demand begins to exceed the growth in supply only slightly in the 2021-2025 and really strong demand from 80+ seniors relative to the level of supply growth does not begin to appear until after 2026, when the Baby Boomers (1946 to 1964) begin turning 80.

Reasons For Near-Term Pessimism – While not every seniors housing market will get overbuilt and many high-barrier-to-entry markets may avoid the adverse impact of additional private-pay seniors housing development, I believe the data above supports my pessimistic view on private-pay seniors housing occupancy, rate and the risk of overbuilding over the next 3 – 5 years. If we keep building at current levels as a percent of supply and we focus on demand from 80+ seniors, it appears that the seniors housing industry will substantially overbuild the market over the next five years. In the period from 2021-2025, the amount by which projected 80+ demand will exceed projected supply growth should be sufficient to help absorb some of the excess supply created in 2016-2020 but may not be high enough to support a significant increase in occupancy or rate or a true senior housing boom.   The golden age in terms of demand is really a post-2026 event assuming supply growth continues at today’s rate, the health of baby boomers at 80 is about the same as today’s 80 year olds and boomers will find seniors housing as it is currently being designed and built attractive.

Keys To Success In A More Competitive Environment And Future Arrival Of The Boomers

In order to outperform in the more competitive environment for private-pay seniors housing that I see over the next 3-5 years, I believe operators should:

  • Limit new development near term
  • Focus on high barrier to entry markets
  • Try to reduce turnover
  • Design/Redesign/Market properties to attract under-80 or early 80s seniors by focusing on IL rather than AL and rethinking locations and amenities to appeal to “younger” seniors
  • Increase their equity cushion and line up capital in order to be able to bid for more attractively priced acquisitions if occupancy and rates fall and some new product cannot be filled as anticipated

In future blogs, I will discuss some of the cutting edge product that I believe will appeal to Under-80 seniors and look at the housing alternatives to private-pay seniors housing for this age group such as staying in their homes or choosing mixed age condos and apartments, using support services where necessary.

Technical Notes

I want to acknowledge the help of my friends at NIC in preparing this blog, even though it takes a more negative view on the near-term outlook for the industry.   I particularly want to acknowledge the help of Robert Kramer, Beth Burnham Mace and Chris McGraw.   Dave Schless at ASHA also reviewed an early draft and gave me his feedback.

I do not intend to malign NIC MAP data in this blog post. The advent and growth of NIC MAP data is a great tool for the industry and one that should help us avoid the rampant overbuilding seen in private-pay seniors housing in the late 1990s.   NIC MAP makes no statement about the appropriateness of the 75 plus penetration rate and demand, per se. NIC MAP adopted the 75 plus household cohort a number of years ago because it has been traditionally been used in the sector by feasibility analysts and others.

I also want to acknowledge two industry reports that cover some of the same material noted here but reach somewhat different conclusions. These are: Beth Mace’s Demographic Update Commentary, circulated by NIC in July, 2015 and Phil Downey’s and Larry Rouvelas’ A Projection of Demand for Market Rate U.S. Seniors Housing 2010 – 2030 published by American Seniors Housing Association Winter 2013.

NIC defines institutional quality private-pay seniors housing as properties with 20 or more units. NIC normally calculates penetration based by comparing the total supply of private-pay seniors housing in the top 99 markets to the total U.S. 75+ household cohort (not the entire household and institutional 75+ population).

In this analysis, I compare the total number of estimated occupied private-pay senior housing units in the U.S. to the total U.S. population of 75 and over and 80 and over seniors.   I believe use of a penetration rate based on actual occupancy rather than including vacant units is more accurate but use of either an occupied or total supply penetration rate would produce essentially the same result as indicated above.

While households are the standard unit of demand for housing of all types, NIC, other researchers and I also use population to measure future demand because the Census Bureau does detailed population projections by age but not projections of households.   Various commercial data services do project households by age.   One other cautionary note when thinking about demand projections for seniors housing is that male longevity has been improving, meaning more very old two person households and potentially less unit demand for private-pay seniors housing than population projections alone may indicate.

There are also some limitations in how I project supply growth.   I use NIC MAP construction estimates as of 3Q15 for the top 99 markets, make the assumption that these units will be delivered evenly over two years and that this same rate of growth is occurring in the rest of the country outside the top 99 markets and will continue in the future.

While I believe the assumptions used in this assessment are reasonable and have reviewed them with NIC staff, I believe it would be very helpful for the industry for NIC, ASHA or an independent academic researcher to undertake a demand / supply analysis using household projections by age, seniors housing supply and construction data for just the top 99 markets and include in this an updated survey of the actual entry ages for seniors housing today.   Such a study would allow us to better select an aged-based penetration rate at 75, 80 or 85 and would eliminate some of the uncertainty created by mixing population and supply data for the entire U.S. with occupancy and construction stats for the top 99 markets.

I welcome your comments on this blog post.

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